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SCORE2 (10-year cardiovascular risk for Europe)

10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events in adults 40–69, calibrated for four European risk regions.

Updated · Methodology

ESC 2021 places Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the very-high-risk region. Most of Western Europe is low or moderate.

The SCORE2 model uses total cholesterol and HDL separately. Non-HDL appears only in the printed charts.

About this calculator

SCORE2 estimates 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular event risk in patients aged 40-69 without known CVD. Developed by the SCORE2 Working Group (Eur Heart J, 2021) in 677,684 patients from 13 European countries. Replaces original SCORE (2003). For patients >=70 use SCORE2-OP. Inputs: age, sex, systolic BP, total cholesterol, HDL, smoking. European risk regions. Low risk: Denmark, France, Israel, Luxembourg, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Belgium. Moderate risk: Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Malta, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia, Sweden, UK. High risk: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Croatia, Turkey. Very high risk: Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Egypt, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, North Macedonia, Russia, Syria, Tunisia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan. Interpretation (ESC 2021). Ages 40-49: <2.5% – low-moderate, 2.5-7.5% – high, >=7.5% – very high. Ages 50-69: <5% – low-moderate, 5-10% – high, >=10% – very high. SCORE2-OP (70+): <7.5% – low-moderate, 7.5-15% – high, >=15% – very high. Clinical use. Stratification before statin initiation in non-CVD hypercholesterolemia. ESC 2021 recommends moderate-intensity statin at high risk, high-intensity at very high. LDL targets: <3 mmol/L at low-moderate, <2.6 at high, <1.8 at very high, <1.4 at extreme (after recurrent MI). Recalculate every 3-5 years. Limitations. Not validated for patients <40, type 1 diabetes, CKD >=stage 3, familial hypercholesterolemia, prior CVD – they are automatically very-high or extreme risk. Does not include socioeconomic factors or ethnicity (South Asian UK patients use QRISK3). ASCVD-PCE is used in the US, NICE QRISK3 in the UK, JBS3 as an alternative. The calculator takes total cholesterol and HDL separately, which is how the model is built. Non-HDL cholesterol is needed only for the printed charts in the paper, and substituting it for total cholesterol understates the risk.

Source

SCORE2 working group and ESC Cardiovascular Risk Collaboration. SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe. Eur Heart J 2021;42(25):2439-2454. Коэффициенты, центрирование, базовая выживаемость и региональные множители: Supplementary methods Table 2 и Table 3 приложения ehab309.

Formula version: score2-working-group-2021-tchol-hdl-v2

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